Day 12 Australian Open Tennis Picks, Odds & Best Bet | Pickswise

It’s women’s semifinal day at the Australian Open. Thursday night’s 2 matchups could not be more different. The top half of the draw features a pair of Grand Slam champions in Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. On the other side, Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska are battling for a spot in the final in what is an entirely unexpected matchup. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 12 schedule for the season’s first Tennis major. I’m a perfect 6-0 over the last 2 days, so let’s keep the momentum going!

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Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Over 21.5 games (-120) 

Given the carnage throughout the top half of the bracket (which has been the case dating all the way back to the 3rd round), Sabalenka vs Gauff should really be the final. In terms of quality and comPetitiveness, it should be worthy of a final, too. Sabalenka was utterly dominant on her way to the semis; Gauff was mostly dominant. Sabalenka, who is the defending champion at Melbourne Park, has not played a single set closer than 6-3 through 5 rounds. Gauff has lost just 1 set, but after dropping it against Marta Kostyuk in the quarters she recovered to steamroll 6-2 in the 3rd.

These 2 women have been by far the best in the entire field this fortnight, just as they have been on tour in general dating back to the 2023 U.S. Open – where Gauff toppled Sabalenka 2-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the championship match. Sabalenka is a considerable favorite to get revenge on Thursday, but Gauff leads the head-to-head series 4-2 and in 6 previous encounters only once has Sabalenka won in straight sets. Count on the world #2 being seriously tested for the first time at this tournament.

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Dayana Yastremska +3.5 games over Qinwen Zheng (-120) 

Yastremska successfully qualified for the main draw, winning all 3 of her qualifying matches in 3 sets. Since then she has been off the races, invoking memories of Emma Raducanu at the 2021 US Open (Raducanu won the title as a qualifier and didn’t lose a single set in the main draw). Yastremska has dropped just 1 set in her last 5 matches. In her lone 3-setter against Emma Navarro in the 3rd round, the Ukrainian took the other 2 sets by convincing scorelines of 6-2 and 6-1. As for Zheng, she has gone to 3 sets 3 times through 5 matches – including in the quarterfinals on Wednesday night against Anna Kalinskaya. I rolled with Yastremska against Linda Noskova in the quarters and I’m not getting off the bandwagon. 

Dayana Yastremska Over 11.5 games won vs Qinwen Zheng (-115) 

I think Yastremka has a great chance to win this outright and at the very least should be comPetitive. Moreover, I’m expecting a long match. After all, this is obviously the biggest match of each woman’s career; mentally it’s not going to be easy for either one to close it out. I like Over 21.5 on the overall Game total, but I like Yastremska Over 11.5 on her individual total even more. This gives us multiple outlets for success. Even in a loss, a 3-setter should get her over the number. Obviously any win gets her over 11.5, as well.

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