Phillies vs Pirates Prediction - MLB Picks 7/28/23

Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57) vs Philadelphia Phillies (55-47)

Game Info: Friday, July 28, 2023 at 7:05 pm (PNC Park)

Mitch Keller (9-6) (4.01) vs Zack Wheeler (7-5) (3.88)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates +130 / Philadelphia Phillies -160 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Philadelphia Phillies will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Philadelphia is coming off of a nice series win at home against Baltimore, while Pittsburgh has not found much success over the last couple of months. 

Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 55-47 this season and they have won three out of their last four Games. Philadelphia is coming off of a series win against Baltimore, where they won two out of three Games. The Phillies needed that series win against the Orioles, as they lost the two previous series to Cleveland and Milwaukee. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .241 opponent batting average this season. The Phillies offense has scored 458 runs with a .256 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Nick Castellanos is batting .280 with 14 home runs and 60 RBI’s for the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 7-5 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 118.1 innings pitched this year. 

Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 45-57 this season and they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven Games. Pittsburgh is coming off of a series win against the Padres, where they won two out of three Games on the road. Prior to the San Diego series, Pittsburgh lost series against the Angels, Guardians, Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Brewers. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates offense has scored 421 runs with a .236 batting average and a .312 on base percentage this year. Jack Suwinski is batting .228 with 21 home runs and 52 RBI’s for the Pirates. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 9-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 128.0 innings pitched this season.

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Matchup/League Facts

The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

The Philadelphia Phillies ranks T3rd in the league for triples this season (21).

The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T8th in the league for triples this season (17).

The Pittsburgh Pirates ranks T9th in the league for steals this season (83).

Pick

The Phillies come into this series with plenty of confidence after knocking off the Orioles in their last series, while Pittsburgh was able to get their first series win in a while. The Phillies are right in the NL Wild Card chase and they are 27-27 on the road this year. Philadelphia is starting Zack Wheeler, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Pittsburgh is starting Mitch Keller, who has allowed 14 earned runs over his last two starts (11 IP). Despite winning their last series, I haven’t liked what I have seen from Pittsburgh recently. I like the Phillies -1.5 in this Game. 

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